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The industry predicts that China's new wind power installed capacity may fall in 2016

the industry predicts that China's new wind power installed capacity may fall in 2016

China Construction machinery information

the development of the wind power industry in 2015 released by the National Energy Administration on February 2 shows that the new installed capacity of wind power in 2015 was 32.97 million KW, and the new installed capacity hit a new record high. The cumulative combined installed capacity reached 129 million KW, accounting for 8.6% of the total installed power generation capacity. Wind power generation is 186.3 billion kwh, accounting for 3.3% of the total power generation

according to the data on the installed capacity of wind power and the market share of complete machine manufacturers in 2015 released at the end of January, 208. Filters: for filters without infarct inducers, the new installed capacity of China's onshore and offshore wind power has reached 29 GW in 15 years, of which the new installed capacity of onshore wind power has reached 28.7 GW, which is also the seventh consecutive year since 2009 that China has been the world's largest wind power market. Bloomberg New Energy Finance said that this data is the hoisting capacity, not the combined capacity

the preliminary statistical data previously released by the China Wind Energy Association showed that in 2015, China's new installed capacity of wind power was 30.5 million KW, an increase of 31.5% year-on-year. As a rule, the data released by China Wind Energy Association should also be the ex factory hoisting capacity

an insider said that due to the different statistical caliber, the statistical data of various countries are somewhat different. However, it is certain that the development speed of wind power in China has indeed reached a historical high in 2015. Especially in terms of the shipments of machine manufacturers, it is obviously more prosperous than in previous years. "However, the bright figures only show the quantity, which is difficult to infer. The development quality of our wind power industry has been significantly improved." The person believes that

the new installed capacity will decline this year

in the view of the industry, the rapid growth of wind power in 2015 has a lot to do with the "rush to install" caused by the reduction of benchmark price of wind power. Therefore, the high growth in 2015 was mainly driven by the policy of reducing wind power prices rather than completely driven by market demand

in the draft of wind power price adjustment issued by the national development and Reform Commission in September 2014, the reduction range is far beyond market expectations, causing developers to try to complete the operation of approved projects as much as possible before the official reduction of onshore wind power price. In this context, since the second half of 2014, the cumulative growth rate of wind power investment has continuously exceeded 40%. With the official announcement of the onshore wind power price adjustment plan in January 2015, the "rush to install" situation continued until the end of 2015

at present, mainstream wind power operators must do a hydraulic test on plastic water supply pipelines. Businesses such as Longyuan Power, Huaneng new energy, Datang new energy, etc. all expect the annual installed capacity of new wind power to decline. The industry believes that, on the one hand, the new round of wind power price adjustment clearly defines the price reduction plan for the next few years, which will greatly alleviate the phenomenon of "rush to install"; On the other hand, wind power developers will also be more cautious about capacity expansion after the price reduction

According to the analysis report of China Merchants Securities, the installed capacity of new wind power in China has reached a peak in 2015, and will gradually decline during the "13th five year plan". It is expected that the new installed capacity of wind power in 2016 and 2017 will fall back to 27 GW and 25 GW respectively, down 11.5% and 16.7% respectively compared with 2015

it is also important to manage the stock of wind power well.

the data disclosed by the National Energy Administration shows that in 2015, the situation of wind power abandonment and power limitation intensified. The annual wind power abandonment was 33.9 billion kwh, an increase of 21.3 billion kwh year-on-year, with an average wind abandonment rate of 15%, an increase of 7 percentage points year-on-year. Among them, the regions with heavy wind abandonment were Inner Mongolia, Gansu, Xinjiang and Jilin

liuyongqian, a professor at the school of renewable energy of North China Electric Power University, said that the installed capacity of wind power in the United States is less than that in China, but the power generation is more than that in China, which shows that although many domestic wind turbines are erected, wind power is not effectively consumed for various reasons

"the above phenomenon shows that the wind power industry should not only have quantitative growth, but also qualitative improvement." An expert from the wind energy equipment branch of China Agricultural Machinery Association said

a relevant person from the new energy department of the National Energy Administration said that as a new energy such as wind power, it needs a certain market scale to guide. Of course, while maintaining a certain scale of new capacity, the more important thing is, For the existing installed capacity "The design team wants to optimize the quantity and bring better products to customers. Manage the completed projects and constantly improve the technical level of the industry, so as to ensure the effective utilization of wind power.

the above experts of the wind energy equipment branch of China Agricultural Machinery Association believe that at present, there is room for optimization and improvement in the manufacturing, location design, operation management and post maintenance of wind power equipment, and enterprises need to be guided to tap these potentials. Through Market competition has driven the development cost of wind power to further decline significantly during the "13th five year plan" period, enhancing the competitiveness of the whole wind power industry

test the service ability of machine manufacturers

according to Bloomberg new energy finance statistics, the total installed capacity of China's top four machine manufacturers reached 16 GW in 2015, accounting for 55% of the total installed capacity of the country that year

China Merchants Securities believes that as the benchmark price of wind power is gradually reduced, wind power operators will invest more energy in improving the efficiency of wind power plants rather than trying to increase the annual installed capacity. This will accelerate the integration of the equipment manufacturing market, and companies lacking technological advantages will gradually withdraw from the market

a relevant person in charge of a well-known domestic wind turbine manufacturer said that it is impossible to gain an advantage in the future market environment only by selling wind turbines. The new wind power market will be in the climbing stage in the next few years, but the stock market has begun to take shape. How to serve the growing stock market will be an important growth point of future profits

under this trend, Xiangdian wind energy, Huayi Electric, Sinovel wind power and other wind turbine manufacturers have made efforts in the wind power service market, especially in the field of operation and maintenance since last year

this sign is also reflected in the global wind power market. In recent months, Vestas, a Danish wind power giant, has acquired upwind, a North American operation and maintenance company, and availon, a German operation and maintenance company. Both acquisitions focus on Vestas' profitable growth strategy, so that it can give full play to the full potential of its operation and maintenance service business and complete the transformation from simply selling wind turbines to providing full life-cycle solutions. In addition, Siemens in Germany is also in contact with COMESA, a Spanish fan manufacturer, to acquire COMESA in order to expand the industrial chain and market space

"in the new market situation, how to help the wind farms put into operation manage the wind power assets and improve the overall efficiency of the wind farms, there is still a lot of room for machine manufacturers to display, but it also poses a challenge to the core R & D ability and service response ability of machine manufacturers." The relevant person in charge of the above machine manufacturer

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